Betting a 20-1 Longshot Bomb in the Belmont: David Papadopoulos

It made wunderkind racehorse trainer Chad Brown a decade to capture his first Triple Crown trophy. I’m betting his second one comes merely three weeks later.

Is it a longshot? Yeah, it’s a longshot, peculiarly because the colt he’s sending out in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday isn’t the same up-and-coming colt that won the Preakness Stakes last-place month.

That was Cloud Computing.

Twisted Tom

Photographer: Al Bello/ Getty Images

This is Twisted Tom.

And Tom, to be frank, has his troubles. He’s gradual — on a speed-figure flake, he’s not even close to the top Belmont competitors — and he’s never faced upper-class challenger like this before. But he also has some things going for him: He’s won three hastens in a row, he’s grooming well and he’s suck a favorable inside post situation for the hasten. What’s more, that grind-it-out, slow-and-steady room he has about him is perfect for the marathon Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles.

At expected odds of 20-1, I like the risk-reward equation.

I’m betting Tom to win and will also weave him into an exacta container with Tapwrit, a talented colt who finished a honourable sixth in the Kentucky Derby after a bumpy start. To try to further juice recalls, I’ll pair Tom up in a Daily Double wager with a horse reputation Time Test in the scoot prior to the Belmont. Unlike Tom, there’s nothing slow about Time Test. He can flat-out run.

( David Papadopoulos, a managing editor at Bloomberg News, is a voter in the thoroughbred industry’s annual Eclipse Awards. He has been publicizing his Triple Crown picks since 2012.)

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